COP30 in Belém: What to Expect From a Pivotal Climate Summit

As COP30 unfolds in Belém, Brazil, the negotiations are revealing the contours of what may become known as the “Belém Package” — a complex set of interlinked decisions aimed at advancing global climate ambition, strengthening climate finance, and operationalizing adaptation and resilience frameworks. The week-one consultations, captured through the Presidency’s Mutirão discussions, have already exposed the political tensions, the emerging coalitions, and the likely outcomes shaping this year’s conference.

This article outlines the most probable deliverables, compromises, and breakthroughs expected at COP30.

1. A Political “Belém Package”: The Centerpiece of COP30

The Brazilian Presidency is steering Parties toward a comprehensive political outcome — the Belém Package — expected to include:

• A Mutirão Decision synthesizing the overarching political commitments from Parties.

• Anchoring decisions on NDC ambition, finance, and adaptation.

• Previously autonomous technical tracks feeding into a second cluster of outcomes.

The Presidency’s firm intent to conclude technical negotiations early signals that political trade-offs will dominate the final days.

Likely outcome: A broad, narrative-driven political decision emphasizing ambition, resilience, justice, and implementation.

2. Closing the 1.5°C Gap: A Tense Debate on NDC Ambition

Many Parties have pressed for a COP30 response to the NDC ambition gap, referencing Mission 1.5 and stressing the need for a global pathway to keep 1.5°C within reach.Others — notably within the LMDC and Arab Groups — strongly resist any language implying a collective response or pressure to enhance ambition.

Likely outcome:

• Soft language on addressing ambition gaps, avoiding prescriptive commitments.

• A political signal to align future NDCs with 1.5°C, without mandating new submissions.

This will be a compromise, not a breakthrough.

3. Adaptation Takes Center Stage: Toward an Operational Global Goal on Adaptation

a. Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA)

Negotiations reflect urgency, but disagreements remain on indicators, framework consistency, and Post-Belém work programmes.

Expected deliverables:

• Agreement on a political vision for GGA indicators — not a complete framework.

• A Post-Belém roadmap to develop capacities and guidance through to 2028.

• Recognition of the Framework for Global Climate Resilience.

b. National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)

Broad agreement is forming around:

• Strengthening support needs

• Clearer links between NAPs and the GGA

• Mainstreaming adaptation across governance systems

• Stronger monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) systems

Some disagreements persist regarding references to private finance and governance levels.

Likely outcome: A strengthened NAP guidance anchored in GGA language and enhanced MEL.

4. Finance: The Most Contentious Negotiation Space

a. Article 2.1(c)

The debate: whether to advance alignment of financial flows with low-carbon, resilient development and how quickly.Developing countries demand safeguards and clarity on complementarity with Article 9.

Likely outcome:A procedural decision signaling continued work, without major institutional architecture being created.

b. Article 9.5 (Ex-ante finance transparency)

There is broad agreement to streamline, but divisions persist on whether to update the Annex.

Likely outcome:

• A streamlined text with two options (update or retain current annex).

• Decision deferred to future sessions if consensus fails.

c. Adaptation finance

The call to triple adaptation finance gained traction, but disagreements remain about where to anchor this commitment.

Likely outcome:The Presidency may place this commitment in the Belém political decision, giving a symbolic win but limited technical detail.

5. Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP): A Battle of Philosophies

This is one of the most ideologically charged negotiations:

• Developing countries push for strong CBDR, equity, and MOI language.

• Developed countries want a 1.5°C-aligned transition, minimal CBDR, and streamlined MOI language.

• Disagreement persists on establishing a Just Transition Mechanism.

Likely outcome:A balanced text that:

• Recognizes CBDR and equity

• References 1.5°C without being prescriptive

• Avoids creating a new mechanism but strengthens existing bodies

  
  

6. Loss and Damage: Cautious Progress, No Major Pledges

a. Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD)

Debates center on:

• Obligations of developed countries

• Alignment with the NCQG

• Work plan specifics

The Arab Group is holding firm, threatening Rule 16 if their views are ignored.

Likely outcome:A revised guidance text — modest but functional — with limited political confrontation.

b. Review of the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM)

Still contentious on:

• Human rights language

• National L&D plans

• Aligning WIM work with BTRs

• Enhanced support

• Whether to produce a knowledge product

Likely outcome: A compromise review text acknowledging gaps while mandating future technical work.

7. Global Stocktake (GST) Implementation: Process, Not Substance

Negotiations on GST implementation show divisions on:

• The role of the IPCC

• Dialogue timelines

• Whether Loss & Damage is autonomous

• Scope and outcomes of the UAE Dialogue

Saudi Arabia and LMDCs strongly resist explicit references to IPCC.

Likely outcome:A procedural outcome enabling the GST implementation dialogues to proceed, but no major new obligations.

8. Mitigation Work Programme: Digital Platform Debate Dominates

Developed countries oppose creating a new mitigation knowledge platform; developing countries insist on it.

Likely outcome:A compromise referencing enhanced knowledge-sharing through existing platforms.

9. Article 6 (Carbon Markets): Slow, Technical, Fragmented Progress

Article 6.2

Deep divisions persist between:

• Flexibility-focused countries

• Transparency-focused countries

Expect a light decision, deferring major issues.

Article 6.4

More progress, but disagreements remain over baseline rules and SBM representation.

Likely outcome: A new iteration advancing transparency but avoiding major reforms.

10. Response Measures, Transparency, and Cooperation With Other International Institutions

• Response Measures remain politically difficult due to concerns about unilateral trade measures.

• Transparency negotiations are progressing but slowly.

• Saudi Arabia’s unexpected blockage of cooperation with international organisations will likely result in no substantive progress on this agenda item at COP30.

  
  

CONCLUSION: What Will COP30 Deliver?

1. A strong political Belém Package

Framing ambition, adaptation, finance, and just transitions.

2. Incremental but important progress on adaptation

GGA vision + Post-Belém work programme + stronger NAP guidance.

3. Symbolic advancements in finance

Tripling adaptation finance (political), Article 9.5 progress, but limited movement on 2.1(c).

4. Managed expectations on Loss and Damage

Technical alignment, but no major financial pledges.

5. Continued fragmentation in mitigation

GST, MWP, and Article 6 outcomes will be modest and procedural.

6. Renewed focus on equity and CBDR

Especially visible in JTWP and finance.

COP30 will not be the breakthrough COP of the decade. But it will be a bridge COP — one that stabilizes negotiations, anchors adaptation and just transition as political priorities, and sets the stage for more decisive action as countries prepare their next round of NDCs by 2025–2026.

Cedric Dzelu

Technical Director

Office of the Minister of State for Climate Change and Sustainability of Ghana

cedricdzelu@gmail.com